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The climate system provides the conditions for all living beings to thrive. Our actions during the last centuries though are increasingly disrupting the delicate balance of the climate system, threatening the survival of both humans and countless species.
The causes and effects are well understood, and solutions are ready. It just needs to be done.
Human-induced climate change is omnipresent – we are permanently confronted with media articles covering climate activism, unusual (local) weather and extreme events that cause infrastructure damages and even fatalities. Still, the magnitude of climate impacts on our lives are barely tangible and only partially affecting Europeans so far.
Although changes in the climate system have always occurred, humankind faces an unprecedented challenge as the current scale and speed make it impossible to adapt to the changes completely. Therefore, we need to take urgent actions to ensure a liveable future.
The climate system consists of different components, such as the atmosphere, the biosphere where all living beings exist, and the recently explicitly designated anthroposphere which involves all human-made impacts that can no longer be neglected. These spheres interact with each other and alterations in one influence all others and vice versa. Therefore, the melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice caps and sea-ice, even though geographically far away, impacts the local weather and climate conditions over Europe. Furthermore, the complexity and size of the climate system makes it inert, so action must be taken now to ensure that the main risks identified for Europe do not materialise at an unmanageable scale: Food shortages, heat stress, water scarcity and flooding.
Since the industrial revolution our society has evolved tremendously, but this has also led to extensive changes in the prevailing landscape through settlements and infrastructure while basing our economy and lifestyles on burning fossil fuels. These aspects directly impact different components of the climate system: consumption-intensive lifestyles affect the atmosphere through emissions, the consumption of land through the built environment affect the biosphere, the lithosphere providing space and resources – with each of the components mutually affecting each other.
Consequently, also our local climate conditions are increasingly modified, resulting in ever more extreme weather events: droughts and related food scarcity, heat and related health risks, extreme precipitation and flooding. The threatening consequences of human-made climate change have been studied in detail already for decades. Thus, the causes and the extent of climate impacts are undisputed among scientists. Measures for mitigating climate change and adapting to inevitable changes have been developed but have yet to be sufficiently implemented, threatening our future additionally even though solutions exist.
Knowing the consequences of our actions for the climate system, we can define, explore and adopt measures to reduce or even avoid the impacts of these actions. The knowledge and tools are largely there, but the general awareness of them and the political guidelines for their implementation are lacking. KNOWING therefore aims to communicate this knowledge in a comprehensive and understandable way to all groups (policymakers, stakeholders and civil society) in order to provide clear guidelines for saving our future.
Human activities have caused changes in our climate. We must stop engaging in those activities and adjust to the developments that can no longer be avoided. But what if our adaptation efforts continue to fuel climate change?
A systems perspective is needed to understand what adaptation measures we can “afford” without further harming the climate.
We know that there is no more time to lose facing the climate crisis. Therefore, mitigation of climate change includes all efforts to prevent or reduce the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere, either by reducing the sources of these gases (e.g. through renewable energy) or by improving the storage of these gases (e.g. by increasing the size of forests). However, the effects of climate change are already being felt today and we will have to adapt more and more, even if we adhere to strict climate protection measures. Examples of adaptation measures include large-scale infrastructure changes such as sea-level rise protection walls (reducing vulnerability) and relocations or migration to avoid climate change impacts (reducing exposure).
In short, mitigation addresses the causes of climate change and adaptation addresses the effects of climate change. But mitigation and adaptation measures do not take place in isolation. Rather, they are interconnected in various ways which may lead to new risks that we need to manage without jeopardising our climate change mitigation goals. A simple example is that extreme heatwaves may trigger a massive increase in residential air conditioning, which not only exacerbates the effects of the urban heat island, but also leads to increased energy consumption and additional greenhouse gas emissions.
The adaptation response described above is an example of maladaptation: responses based on incomplete knowledge of the system and motivated only by short-term goals often lead to unintended side-effects in other sectors or at the higher level, rendering other adaptation and mitigation measures ineffective. The outcome in such cases is undesirable, for the individual (at least in the longer term), for society, or for both.
Maladaptation is not limited to individual behaviour. Many policies (and related innovations) that have targeted aspects of both mitigation and adaptation have failed to have a long-term impact due to rebound or spillover effects. An example of a typical rebound effect is the increase in energy efficiency (and reduction in costs) through advanced technologies that lead to an increase in demand rather than a decrease in energy consumption.
In this complex system with its cross-dependencies between sectors, how can we combine the efforts of mitigation and adaptation in such a way that they really contribute to our goals in the long term? KNOWING takes a systemic view, modelling all relevant causal links and resulting feedback to analyse and optimise mitigation and adaptation pathways. This is considered as the main methodological novelty in KNOWING.
No single measure will be the key to success. From a systems perspective, the (reinforcing) interaction between individual measures will be critical to exploit the full synergy potential. This can also help to transform negative spirals (vitious circles) into positive spirals (virtuous circles), facilitating positive social tipping points.
In a world of constant change, we feel uncertain and overwhelmed. But: We don’t have to be driven by these changes! By joining forces and shaping our future, we can eliminate these uncertainties and determine the direction of change.
Together, let’s create a better world for ourselves and the generations to come.
The world is changing, in many ways. It has already started, and the changes will increase. Weather extremes, water scarcity, migration of climate refugees and more seem inevitable. Many of these changes are frightening, especially as they threaten our way of life and the voices warning of them are growing louder. Our hope for a better future seems to be at risk, and many feel increasingly helpless.
It is human to want to hold on to the familiar in times of increasing uncertainty and threat, as it offers security. But this security is deceptive, because the familiar cannot be maintained in a world that is changing so dramatically. And the greater the discrepancy between the familiar and the changing world, the greater the anxiety and fear of losing the familiar.
But security can also be achieved in another way – by deliberately recognising that there must be change and steering that change in a direction that creates a future worth living. By accepting that which cannot be changed and changing what is within one’s power, we become the creators of our own – nearer and more distant – future.
Many solutions may already be easily implemented today and can directly increase the quality of life significantly. A slower and less stressful pace of life through smaller activity circles and slower travel, better health through a more conscious diet could be realised immediately by many people without much effort. But although the awareness is there, many fail to make long-term behavioural changes due to hanging on to old patterns all too easily or simply not knowing what such a new life could look like. Support and guiding principles are needed in such cases.
Elsewhere, broader structural changes are necessary, like more durable and locally produced products that are affordable, and sufficient local supply even outside large centres. These are equally important to create the necessary framework conditions for people to change their lifestyles and give them the confidence that they are doing the right and better thing for themselves. After all, nothing is more demotivating than wanting to change and not being able to.
There is no doubt that change will affect everyone – no one will be spared the consequences of climate change. But change also means opportunity, if we take control of the situation and shape the future.
This requires everyone to be aware that change is necessary, to know how to move in the right direction, and to have the tools to continue on that path. KNOWING develops the framework for all these areas to empower people of all levels and backgrounds to co-create the future. Making a future worth living for ourselves, our children and all others to come.
Copyright © 2025 knowing climate.
